Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Determining whether a movement is mean reverting

What characteristics would positive or negative momentum have to indicate that this is not movement to a new level, but ultimately a mean reverting cycle (in the short term)? Ultimately would like to come up with a view on the likely duration of the cycle (how strong and how long).

I have not fully studied this, but would look at the following:

  • volume in the buying or selling relative to historical for the time period as well as recent
  • lack or presence of news event
  • speed of ascent / descent (how do we distinguish period aggressive execution from sustained)
  • changes in complexion of order book

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